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We Got This Covered’s Early Oscar Predictions

October 2014 should go down as one of the best months in cinema history. On the one hand, the box office has been on fire, surpassing its monthly record. As for the quality of these titles, though, it is hard to think of another 31-day period that saw so many exceptional releases.

Best Director

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With only five spots in this category and up to ten potential slots in the Best Picture race, there is very little chance of a director receiving a nomination without having their film earn a top nomination.

Despite much praise for indie directors Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne (Two Days, One Night), J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year) and Ava DuVernay (Selma), their films’ appeal may be too limited for a top nomination. While many high-profile directors have big projects aimed for the end of the year – Big Eyes’ Tim Burton, American Sniper’s Clint Eastwood, Into the Woods’ Rob Marshall – their chances in this category will be due to how well the Academy responds to their films, which have not been seen.

This category may come down to the directors who have done work that stands out the most from the rest of their peers. Richard Linklater seems like a virtual lock due to his audacious 12-year project Boyhood and Alejandro González Iñárritu pulled out a lot of showstoppers to immerse an audience in his intertextual comedy Birdman. Meanwhile, there should be room for at least one of the following, whose period-oriented work required a lot of expertise: Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game). The former three may have more luck in the screenplay category, though, even if Leigh’s process doesn’t even include written scripts.

As for Hollywood and fanboy heavyweights David Fincher (Gone Girl) and Christopher Nolan (Interstellar), reaction to their latest films have been a bit more muted than expected, although both could surprise. Nolan has never received a Best Director nomination and Warner Bros. may campaign hard to change that. More likely to fill the last slot include Academy darlings Angelina Jolie, who received the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award last year, for Unbroken. Bennett Miller directed four actors to Oscar nominations (and Philip Seymour Hoffman to a win) for his first two films, Capote and Moneyball. Actors are the largest voting body in the Academy and those who direct many actors to nominations often receive one (David O. Russell, for instance). Therefore, it should not be tough for the director of Foxcatcher, which boasts many wonderful performances, to achieve a berth here.

Early Predictions:

  • Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
  • Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
  • Richard Linklater, Boyhood
  • Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
  • Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Possible spoilers:

  • Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
  • David Fincher, Gone Girl
  • James Marsh, The Theory of Everything
  • Christopher Nolan, Interstellar