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We Got This Covered’s Early Oscar Predictions

October 2014 should go down as one of the best months in cinema history. On the one hand, the box office has been on fire, surpassing its monthly record. As for the quality of these titles, though, it is hard to think of another 31-day period that saw so many exceptional releases.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

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Last year, despite the likes of Michael Fassbender and Jared Leto burning up the screen, there was not much competition in this supporting category. Without too many frontrunners, there could be room for a lot of admired actors with Academy appeal to sneak into the category.

Similar to the other categories, a lot of this category is riding on the success of the films. In the prior ceremony, Barkhad Abdi, Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill managed to snag berths. However, they all starred in $100-million grossers in the United States, and may not have received the same attention had their films flopped at the box office. As a result, strong turns from character actors like Jonathan Pryce (Listen Up Philip) and Dominic West and Bill Nighy (Pride) will likely not be in contention. Meanwhile, if Selma and A Most Violent Year do not grasp much popularity at the end of year, it could spell trouble for Tom Wilkinson and Albert Brooks, respectively. (The latter was considered a surefire contender for Drive in 2012, but failed to snag a nomination.)

Meanwhile, there are a lot of ex-Oscar winners who have potential to sway crowds. Robert Duvall has earned praise for his turn in The Judge, although that film has not kept up much momentum in recent weeks. Christoph Waltz has won two Oscars in the last five years and could sneak into the category if people like his turn in Tim Burton’s Big Eyes.

Like the Best Actor race, one should prepare for a lot of newcomers. J.K. Simmons has earned rapturous reviews as the antagonist (a character type often honored in this category) of Whiplash, although the box office has been more muted than expected. Japanese musician Miyavi is also getting a lot of buzz for playing another similarly sadistic villain, POW guard Mutsuhiro Watanabe, in Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken. Meanwhile, would it surprise you to learn that John Goodman has never received an Academy Award nomination? From the looks of the red-band trailer for The Gambler, this could be the year that all changes.

As for other good bets, Edward Norton is getting raves for his self-referential turn in Birdman – almost as many as his co-star, Michael Keaton. Mark Ruffalo and Channing Tatum have received similar strong reviews for Foxcatcher. Josh Brolin’s offbeat performance in Inherent Vice could earn some love, but the film may be too polarizing for Academy tastes (although that didn’t stop Jonah Hill from getting a second nom). Far from the diversity of crazy and venomous turns in this category, Ethan Hawke has some momentum going into the race due to the goodwill surrounding Boyhood. He could receive his second career nomination in the category, which seems a safer bet by the day.

Early Predictions:

  • John Goodman, The Gambler
  • Miyavi, Unbroken
  • Edward Norton, Birdman
  • Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
  • J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Possible Spoilers:

  • Albert Brooks, A Most Violent Year
  • Robert Duvall, The Judge
  • Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
  • Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
  • Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes