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We Got This Covered’s Early Oscar Predictions

October 2014 should go down as one of the best months in cinema history. On the one hand, the box office has been on fire, surpassing its monthly record. As for the quality of these titles, though, it is hard to think of another 31-day period that saw so many exceptional releases.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

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There are fewer strong contenders in the Best Actress race, although that has more to do with the lack of good films with female protagonists. Unlike the Best Actor race, many of the names destined to be announced in January will be more familiar.

Two actors that have received a plethora of nominations will be appearing in films that are courting Oscar’s name. Amy Adams’s turn as Margaret Keane in Big Eyes is getting some attention and she has received a whopping five nominations in the last ten years alone, without any wins. (In contemporary terms, she is the female DiCaprio.) However, Tim Burton is on a cool streak lately and the film’s first trailer did not grab much attention. More likely for a nomination – after four tries without a win – is Julianne Moore, whose turn as a professor suffering from early-onset dementia in Still Alice earned a rapturous response at the Toronto Film Festival.

A few popular actors who have garnered or should garner good reviews – Shailene Woodley in The Fault in Our Stars, Emily Blunt in Into the Woods – may not be potent enough for the category. Meanwhile, striking turns from English actor Gugu Mbatha-Raw in two films this year (Belle, Beyond the Lights) could make her a spoiler if some of the late year films underperform.

However, the Academy likes to shine the spotlight on new female actors who are starting to earn attention. As for actors starting to find their mark in 2014, it is hard to imagine that Gone Girl’s Rosamund Pike will be left off the list in January. If Rooney Mara can get a nomination for her leading dramatic breakthrough in a Fincher film, than Pike certainly can as well. Meanwhile, Felicity Jones – who is earning raves for her turn in The Theory of Everything – seems like a good bet, as well. Reviews indicate she is every bit the equal of her co-star, Eddie Redmayne, and she has been giving good turns for a few years now.

The rest of the category will come down to the merits of actors who are no stranger to the Academy. Marion Cotillard has been in the hunt since Cannes for her grueling turn in Two Days, One Night. However, that film may be too small to compete with Wild, based on the best-selling memoir. Reese Witherspoon’s portrayal in that film has Oscar written all over it. Although the category is starting to lean in Moore’s favor, Witherspoon should be a solid contender.

Early Predictions:

  • Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
  • Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
  • Julianne Moore, Still Alice
  • Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
  • Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Possible spoilers:

  • Amy Adams, Big Eyes
  • Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle