Under most circumstances, you’d expect the latest big budget blockbuster from the director of Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow and 2012 to handily win the box office in its opening weekend, especially when Moonfall finds Roland Emmerich back on very familiar turf.
However, the enduring popularity of the Jackass crew should never be underestimated, even if eleven years have passed since Johnny Knoxville and the rest of the gang graced the big screen with their particular (and very painful) brand of stunt-based comedy.
All three of the previous installments opened at number one, and it looks as though Jackass Forever is set to continue the franchise’s 100% success rate, with a debut in the mid-teens being predicted. That being said, we’ve seen plenty of titles over-perform and end up well ahead of estimates, so don’t be shocked if the sequel winds up closer to $20 million.
On the other side of the coin, the very highest projections have Moonfall maxing out at around $15 million, so international audiences will be the key to the sci-fi epic’s chances of turning a profit. That’s a big ask for a $140 million epic that ranks as one of the most expensive independent films ever made, though, but it definitely isn’t out of the question.