2019 is set to be a ridiculously huge year for Disney for a multitude of reasons, from the upcoming Disney Plus platform to the impending Fox merger, but in terms of cinematic releases, the two biggest events are almost certainly Avengers: Endgame and Star Wars: Episode IX. But while Forbes writer Scott Mendelson is predicting these two major blockbusters to be the year’s highest-grossing releases, he also argues that J.J. Abrams’ upcoming trilogy-closer is unlikely to do as well as Marvel’s ensemble actioner.
Both Episode IX and Endgame are following up the highest global grossers of their respective year – 2017’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi for the former, and 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War for the latter – but that’s not to say that the pair have an equal amount of hype behind them. For one thing, The Last Jedi has been met with considerable online backlash, and it remains to be seen just how much this response reflects the mainstream opinion of Rian Johnson’s film. More significantly, it’s argued that while Marvel is only getting bigger overseas, the Star Wars franchise is on decline in territories that didn’t grow up with the Original Trilogy.
Of course, the $1.3 billion global gross of The Last Jedi is nothing to be sniffed at, but with Infinity War taking in $2.0 billion last year, it’s clear that Marvel is the brand with the better box office momentum right now, and the cliffhanger ending of Infinity War probably won’t hurt matters, either. While the delayed releases of major films like Bond 25 and Wonder Woman 1984 have helped reduce the late-2019 competition for Episode IX, Mendelson ultimately argues that the next Star Wars movie could only outgross the next Avengers in a best case scenario for the former and a worst case scenario for the latter.
Regardless, you can expect a lot of people to show up for Star Wars: Episode IX when the film hits theaters on December 20th, 2019. In the meantime, Avengers: Endgame is on course to do very well for itself when it comes out on April 26th.