We’re now one week out from the release of Avengers: Endgame, and it feels like the box office projections just keep getting higher.
Near the start of this month, THR forecast a domestic opening in the range of $200-$250 million. Shortly afterwards, Deadline suggested that the Avengers: Infinity War sequel has “a good shot” at passing $260 million, and may even approach the $300 million mark. And now, ComicBook.com has spoken to three box office analysts, whose estimates are at least as generous.
Boxoffice chief analyst Shawn Robbins, for instance, said that a $300 million domestic opening could end up being “very probable,” though he admits that Endgame’s record-breaking projections bring us into untested waters.
“It’s unprecedented territory,” Robbins said. “The numbers that are out floating around out there no matter where you look, it’s on a level that I don’t even think the most optimistic and/or sort of expected. It feels pretty reasonable, if there is such a thing, to say that it’ll set a new record at this point.”
Meanwhile, senior analyst for Exhibitor Relations, Co. Jeff Bock has also argued that a $300 million debut is potentially within reach.
“They [theaters] are running 24 hours a day, around the clock, opening weekend — which definitely could lead to upwards of $300 million,” Bock explained. “I think that number is crazy to think about, but the build-up, the dead spot we have in the box office right now, and just the fact that this is dozens upon dozens of films in the making…the power of mighty Marvel at the box office, even what Captain Marvel was able to do, just sort of whet the appetite off all these Avengers fans, proves just how big this thing is going to be.”
Lastly, The Numbers boss Bruce Nash didn’t seem quite so sure about the movie’s chances of hitting $300 million, but he did contend that Endgame will at least beat the all-time domestic opening record set by Infinity War of $257 million.
“The one question is ‘Will people go see it on Thursday night, love it, and then buy tickets for Saturday or Sunday, to see it a second time or a third time?’” Nash asked, while considering the film’s 3-hour runtime. “My suspicion is that that will happen and given that Infinity War opened with $257 million, I think that that has to be in danger.”
Again, this is unprecedented territory that we’re discussing here, but the film’s phenomenal pre-sales make these projections seem all too believable. On Fandango, for instance, Endgame managed to smash the site’s 24-hour pre-sales record held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens in a mere six hours, before going on to beat the first week sales of Infinity War at a ratio of 5:1. Meanwhile, on Atom Tickets, the movie claimed the all-time pre-sales record previously held by Aquaman in its first ten days.
In short, you can expect Avengers: Endgame to do very well for itself when it arrives in theaters on April 26th.